2022年8月12日

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Poland: July inflation sets new 2022 record – 3SSR Market

0 1分钟 60分钟

July CPI has been revised to 15.6% year-on-year, the highest level so far in 2022. Yet the inflation peak is still ahead of us and we expect it in the autumn as the heating season begins and drives up prices. The Monetary Policy Council (MPC) will be forced to hike rates further

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0 1分钟 1天

Romanian inflation plateaus; wages advance robustly – 3SSR Market

At 15.0% in July, inflation will hover around current levels until September, before embarking on a downward trend. Today’s numbers are unlikely to change the NBR’s policy path; the hiking pace should decelerate to 50bp and 25bp at the October and November meetings. On the other hand, wage advances remain robust and should support a very soft landing in 2H

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0 4分钟 3天

The Commodities Feed: Druzhba pipeline concerns – 3SSR Market

Your daily roundup of commodities news and ING views

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0 1分钟 3天

Hungarian inflation continues to climb – 3SSR Market

The last time Hungary’s headline inflation was this high, the sci-fi movie Armageddon was in theatres. Quite fitting, given the peak of inflation is still ahead of us

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0 1分钟 4天

Surprise Hungarian budget surplus in July – 3SSR Market

The budget posted a surplus in July, despite some extraordinary spending. Though this looks like a clear positive, it might be a sign that inflation in July was much stronger than we anticipated

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0 1分钟 1周

Romania: consumption shows signs of fatigue – 3SSR Market

Retail sales contracted by 2.1% in June versus the previous month, though they remain 4.2% higher than in June 2021. It is not all that dramatic, but it does darken the outlook for the second half of the year 

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0 1分钟 2周

Korea: GDP grows by more than expected in 2Q22 – 3SSR Market

Korea’s solid growth in 2Q was mainly led by a recovery in consumption thanks to the reopening boost. However, the growth outlook for the second half will not be as strong

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0 3分钟 3周

Poland: Industry slows and labour market softens – 3SSR Market

Production data signals a slowdown in the second half of 2022, but so far, the hard data has outperformed leading indicators. The softness in employment growth, in seasonally-adjusted terms, is consistent with fading activity, but here too, changes have been limited so far. Wage growth is running below inflation and this should continue  

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0 3分钟 4周

UK jobs data likely to divide opinion at the Bank of England – 3SSR Market

The UK jobs market remains tight, even if it is no longer tightening. In practice this data is unlikely to change many minds at the Bank of England when it comes to August’s decision: hawks will stay concerned about worker shortages, while the doves will focus on the pick-up in shorter-term unemployment. We still narrowly expect a 50bp hike next month

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0 1分钟 1月

Poland: A cautious rate hike as growth outlook dims – 3SSR Market

The MPC raised rates by just 50bp, less than expected (ING and consensus at 75bp). This means there is a risk of the zloty weakening. EUR/PLN nearing the wartime shock peak (5.0/€) is possible, but much depends on tomorrow’s conference. A repeat of the very soft rhetoric from June will be negative for the currency

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