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Rising mortgage rates and a general lack of affordability are resulting in a steep drop off in demand for housing. Inventory for sale is rising rapidly, which suggests we are moving from an environment of excess demand, seen since the start of the pandemic, to one of excess supply. This is bad news for home prices and economic activity
配资要闻April retail sales growth was supported by low base effects, “consumption smoothing” by domestic consumers as well as purchases by and for refugees from Ukraine. Construction output growth eased and has serious headwinds ahead. In June, the MPC may hike the main policy rate by 100bp in order to curb inflationary pressure
配资要闻Several European Central Bank officials have become more vocal, showing their concern about the weakening euro. As much as we think that these concerns are overdone, a strengthening euro could be the single most efficient way to temper inflation quickly
配资要闻Rising mortgage rates and a general lack of affordability are resulting in a steep drop off in demand for housing. Inventory for sale is rising rapidly, which suggests we are moving from an environment of excess demand, seen since the start of the pandemic, to one of excess supply. This is bad news for home prices and economic activity
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April retail sales growth was supported by low base effects, “consumption smoothing” by domestic consumers as well as purchases by and for refugees from Ukraine. Construction output growth eased and has serious headwinds ahead. In June, the MPC may hike the main policy rate by 100bp in order to curb inflationary pressure
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Several European Central Bank officials have become more vocal, showing their concern about the weakening euro. As much as we think that these concerns are overdone, a strengthening euro could be the single most efficient way to temper inflation quickly
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In recent days, ECB officials have become more vocal with their concerns about the weak euro. French central bank governor, Villeroy de Galhau, pointed out that a weaker euro would undermine the ECB’s goal of price stability. ECB executive board member, Isabel Schnabel, was quoted saying that the ECB was closely monitoring the impact of the weaker euro on inflation. This is in stark contrast with the minutes of the ECB meeting in April when the exchange rate was only mentioned four times. There was also market speculation that major central banks could go for a kind of Plaza Agreement, using coordinated action and even FX intervention to stop the US dollar from strengthening further and the euro from weakening further.
How much of a concern should the recent weakening of the euro really be for the ECB? Since the last ECB staff projections in March, the euro has lost some 5% against the US dollar. The trade-weighted euro exchange rate lost almost 2%. However, compared with one year ago, the euro has depreciated by more than 13% vis-à-vis the US dollar and around 6% in trade-weighted terms. In normal times, this weakening of the currency would have been a welcome relief for eurozone exports but at the current juncture, it is an additional inflation concern. According to standard estimates, the euro depreciation since March could add another 10bp on inflation this year and 20bp next year. However, at a time in which the main inflationary drivers are energy and commodity prices, which are invoiced in US dollars, the impact of the weaker euro on inflation might be even stronger.
With headline inflation rates above 7%, it is hard to see why some ECB officials are concerned about a few additional basis points. The weak euro might not be the reason for high inflation but it is at least reinforcing it. The main reason why ECB officials have become more vocal on the exchange rate could be the fact that even if higher policy rates will not bring down energy prices or fill containers in Asia, higher policy rates could strengthen the euro. The so-called exchange rate channel could currently be the most, and probably only, efficient way to ease inflationary pressures relatively quickly. This is why the hawks at the ECB might be inclined to use the currency as an argument to support a 50bp rate hike in July and strong forward guidance that more rate hikes are to come. Expect more than the four references to the exchange rate at the April meeting in the coming weeks ahead of the ECB’s 9 June meeting.
The consumer confidence indicator ticked up slightly in May, from -22 to -21.1. This confirms persistent concern about high inflation and a weak global economic outlook and will add to slowing household consumption in the quarters ahead
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European Union and US flags at the EU Commission headquarters in Brussels in this November 11, 2013 file photo. — Reuters pic
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SACLAY, May 16 — The United States and the European Union announced today a joint effort to boost microchip manufacturing and tackle Russian disinformation around the war in Ukraine.
The two sides met outside Paris as part of the Trade and Technology Council, a forum created last year aimed partially at countering China’s increasingly powerful position in the technology sector.
But EU and US officials focused much of their efforts instead on the difficulties created by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, particularly with disinformation.
In its final statement, the council accused Russia of an “all-out assault on the truth” in Ukraine and promised an “early response framework” to tackle disinformation in future crises.
And it promised action over Russian disinformation elsewhere in the world, accusing Moscow of seeking to deflect blame over food supply shortages caused by its war in Ukraine.
“We see the damage from the Russian invasion spreading across the world,” said Margrethe Vestager, the European Commissioner for Competition.
The council’s statement said practical actions could include funding or other support to promote access to “trustworthy and fact-based information”.
The council said its work had already been instrumental in limiting exports of advanced technology in aerospace and cyber-surveillance to undermine Russia’s war effort.
‘Early warning system’
The forum’s other main focuses — on chip manufacturing and the supply of substances vital for the tech industry such as rare earths — put it on a collision course with China.
“Companies from the European Union and the United States do not have prominent positions in the supply chain,” said the final statement on rare earth magnets, vital for tech products including electric vehicles.
“Nearly all production stages are concentrated in China.”
The forum pledged to give the chip industry the maximum possible subsidies.
“We hope to agree on high levels of subsidies—that they will not be more than what is necessary and proportionate and appropriate,” Vestager told reporters on Sunday.
The forum also announced an “early warning system” for disruptions in the supply of semiconductors, substances used to make chips, hoping to avoid excessive competition between Western powers.
No ‘subsidy race’
The chip industry has suffered from a shortage of components for chipmaking blamed on a boom in global demand for electronic products and pandemic-snarled supply chains.
The aim is that “as both Washington and Brussels look to encourage semiconductor investment in our respective countries, we do so in a coordinated fashion and don’t simply encourage a subsidy race”, a US official said separately, speaking on condition of anonymity.
The United States already put in place its own early warning system in 2021 that looked at supply chains in Southeast Asia and “has been very helpful in helping us get ahead of a couple of potential shutdowns earlier this year,” the US official said.
The official added that the two sides are looking ahead to supply disruptions caused by pandemic lockdowns in China—the only major economy still hewing to a zero-Covid strategy.
The European Union and United States will also announce joint measures on fighting disinformation and hacking, especially from Russia, including a guide on cybersecurity best practices for small- and medium-sized companies and a task force on trusted technology suppliers, the US official said.
“It’s not a European matter but a global matter,” she said.
US Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo and US Trade Representative Katherine Tai are visiting for the talks. — AFP
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KUALA LUMPUR, May 16 — GIIB Holdings Bhd (GIIB), a rubber compound and technical compound provider, has started its latex glove manufacturing facility in Nilai, Negri Sembilan.
GIIB said the plant has five double former glove-dipping production lines with a production capacity of 1.05 billion pieces of glove per annum.
The production lines are interchangeable to produce latex or nitrile gloves, it said in a statement today.
GIIB chief executive officer/executive chairman Tai Boon Wee said the plant’s launch today marks the group’s foray into the glove making scene through its 51 per cent owned subsidiary, GIIB Healthcare Products Sdn Bhd.
“We have already secured strong sales orders for the year and we expect the glove business to start contributing to our financial year ending June 30, 2023,” he said.
Tai said under a “maximum scenario”, producing at total capacity, and given the current average selling price of approximately RM90 per 1,000 latex gloves, revenue contribution from this plant is projected to reach about RM94 million per annum.
For comparison, the group reported revenue of RM36.6 million for the 12-month period ended Dec 31, 2021.
“We expect the exports for rubber gloves to remain robust, with growth in the double-digit region.
“Overall, even into the post-Covid era, we believe demand for gloves will remain strong in light of the heightened health awareness brought about by the pandemic,” said Tai.
He noted that the foray would provide the group with a sustainable recurring income stream and enhance the group’s bottom line. — Bernama
Saudi Arabia’s Minister of Energy Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman Al-Saud speaks via video link during a virtual emergency meeting of Opec and non-Opec countries, following the outbreak of the coronavirus disease, in Riyadh April 9, 2020. — Reuters pic
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MANAMA, May 16 — Saudi Arabia is on track to lift oil production capacity by more than 1 million barrels per day to over 13 million barrels bpd by the end of 2026 or start of 2027, the energy minister said today.
Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman told an energy conference in Bahrain that production could be maintained at that level once it was reached should market demand require it.
The prince also said all upstream investments would be domestically focused to achieve that goal.
“We have no money to waste on anywhere else,” he told the conference, adding that production could reach between 13.2- 13.4 million bpd.
On the Durra natural gas field, located in an energy-rich area shared with Kuwait, the minister said both countries were proceeding with its development.
Iran says it has a stake in the field and considers a Saudi-Kuwaiti agreement signed earlier this year to develop it “illegal”.
Saudi Arabia and Kuwait invited Iran in April to hold negotiations to determine the eastern limit of the joint offshore area and reaffirmed their right to develop the gas field located within it.
“It will proceed anyway because Kuwait needs gas, we need gas and we cannot be derailed for more than 22 years,” Prince Abdulaziz said. — Reuters
Malaysian ringgit notes are seen among US dollar bills in this photo illustration taken in Singapore in this August 24, 2015 file photo. — Reuters pic
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KUALA LUMPUR, May 15 — The Malaysian ringgit is playing catch up to the US dollar as surging global interest in the greenback increases its demand and value tremendously.
The sharp increase in the US dollar has resulted in the ringgit depreciating 5.3 per cent year-to-date (YTD) to RM4.3987 against the US dollar on Friday from RM4.1763 on Jan 1, 2022 and is expected to slide further following the decision by the US Federal Reserve to increase interest rates.
The declining value of ringgit against the US dollar have triggered alarm bells among economists, forcing governments to find ways to stabilise the exchange rate for the local note.
What the government faced today is similar to what it encountered during the 1998 Asian Financial Crisis (AFC) and 2008 Global Financial Crisis (GFC), which saw the ringgit experienced a sharp slide against the greenback.
The value of ringgit was at RM3.80 and RM3.46 against the US dollar respectively before measures were taken to stabilise the local note.
The striking difference was oil price witnessed a slump in end of 1998 and 2008, where its average price were at US$12.76 per barrel and US$96.94 per barrel respectively, compared to around US$106.61 per barrel today.
Hence, why is our local currency depreciated against the dollar when oil price are trading higher than before?
The answer is that not only the ringgit face pressure but developed nation currencies are facing it as well.
According to Bank Islam chief economist Dr Mohd Afzanizam Abdul Rashid there are various reasons that influenced the movement of a currency especially in terms of demand.
He said this could be either short term or structural in nature such as something that is more permanent.
The economist said the short term factors could come in the form of, among others, interest rate decisions by the major central banks such as the US Federal Reserve (Fed) as well as other factors such as geopolitics like the war in Ukraine.
“During this uncertain times, demand for safe-haven currency namely the US dollar would be higher because the currency is deemed to be stable and liquid. This will happen all the time,” he said.
Besides the ringgit, he said the Singapore dollar also weakened 3.42 per cent against the US dollar, Thai baht depreciated 4.52 per cent, Indonesia rupiah eased 2.39 per cent, Taiwan dollar declined 7.15 per cent and the Japanese yen went down 10.7 per cent against the greenback YTD.
What could be done to minimise the impact?
Among the measures taken to mitigate the 1998 AFC were the pegging of the ringgit against the US dollar as well as the closing down of the overseas trade of the ringgit and the trade of Malaysian shares in Singapore to put an end to speculative activities in the currency and in the local market.
The measures were also to regulate capital flows, particularly short-term capital outflows by foreigners and local citizens.
During the 2008 GFC, the government had implemented fiscal and monetary policy, stabilising the banking system and strengthening of economic outlook to stabilise the ringgit.
As a result, the banking system had sufficient capital to resolve the crisis and it was relatively difficult for the Malaysian authorities to borrow from foreign banks.
Malaysia also adopted measures to deal with the crisis in the form of a fiscal stimulus package and an easing of monetary policy.
However, Mohd Afzanizam said the measures taken in 1999 and 2008 were not the best measures that could be replicated to solve today’s rising concern.
“We have to understand that the effect of currency movement is always two-way. It can be a costly affair to importers as they have to pay more but exporters are benefitting from it since export prices becomes highly affordable from the foreign buyer point of view.
“I suppose the government should focus on managing economy by ensuring that growth will remain intact and can facilitate business community to prosper and more quality and high paying jobs will be created along the way,” he said.
He said by doing so, the local currency would align itself with the state of the economy and its prospect.
Besides that, Mohd Afzanizam said another crucial aspect is subsidy for the people to mitigate the rising inflation as well as prices of basic necessities.
“We admit that there are cases of misused subsidies but the reform needs to be halted at this juncture to avoid situation to worsen.
“What we need is a roadmap and direct communications with businesses to ensure the people do not have to carry this burden on their shoulders,” he said.
Light at the end of the day
Regardless, rest assured that what the country faced today has been faced before and the administration will take necessary measures to mitigate the impact for the people.
Among it would be the tightening of monetary policy by Bank Negara Malaysia as announced on Thursday and an increase of minimum wage to RM1,500 from May 1, 2022 onwards.
Looking at the announcement of the first quarter of 2020 (Q1 2022) GDP on Friday, which came in higher than expected attributed to the growth in domestic demand, namely consumption and investment, there are signs that the local economy is improving post-pandemic.
Further reopening of the economy has been instrumental in contributing to the domestic economy as households and businesses are wide to transact which could be GDP accretive.
As the economy improves, more jobs are created, supply chain resumes to normalcy, investments return and monetary and fiscal measures were taken, Malaysia will regain its footing and the ringgit will stabilise. — Bernama
Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency by market value, last rose 4.85 per cent to US$29,925 (RM131,610.15), rebounding from a December 2020-low of US$25,400 which it hit on Thursday. ― Reuters file pic
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HONG KONG, May 14 — Cryptocurrencies steadied yesterday, with bitcoin recovering from a 16-month low after a volatile week dominated by the collapse in value of TerraUSD, a so-called stablecoin.
Crypto assets have been swept up in broad selling of risky investments on worries about high inflation and rising interest rates, but have started showing signs of settling.
Although the near-term trajectory of the crypto market is challenging to predict, the worst may be over, said Juan Perez, director of trading at Monex USA in Washington.
“Perhaps now that all the obstacles to global growth along with monetary tightening are clear, perhaps we will start seeing swings upwards,” he said.
Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency by market value, last rose 4.85 per cent to US$29,925 (RM131,610.15), rebounding from a December 2020-low of US$25,400 which it hit on Thursday.
Although it hit a high of just under US$31,000 yesterday, bitcoin remains far below week-earlier levels of around US$40,000 and unless there is a huge weekend rally it is on track for a record seventh consecutive weekly loss.
Stifel chief equity strategist Barry Bannister said bitcoin still has further downside to about US$15,000.
“Bitcoin is also GDP-sensitive, because bitcoin falls when the PMI Manufacturing index drops, as we expect (into the third quarter of 2022), indicating that a last, capitulatory bitcoin drop may be still ahead,” he added.
Ether, the second largest cryptocurrency in terms of market cap, also gained, climbing 6.48 per cent to US$2,051.
Tether, the biggest stablecoin whose developers say is backed by dollar assets, was back at US$1, after falling to 95 cents on Thursday.
TerraUSD, however, the stablecoin that is also supposedly pegged to the dollar, continued to languish, at 14 cents, according to data tracker CoinGecko. It has remained de-pegged from the US currency since May 9.
The crypto sector’s overall market capitalisation rose 6.6 per cent to US$1.35 trillion yesterday, CoinGecko data showed.
Broader financial markets have so far seen little knock-on effect from the cryptocurrency crash. Ratings agency Fitch said in a note on Thursday that weak links to regulated financial markets will limit the potential of crypto market volatility to cause wider financial instability.
“Crypto is still tiny and crypto integration within broader financial markets is still infinitesimally small,” said James Malcolm, head of FX strategy at UBS.
Beyond bitcoin
Crypto-related stocks have taken a pounding with the meltdown in the market, but yesterday, broker Coinbase rose 16 per cent to US$67.87, although it is still down 28 per cent on the week.
Selling has roughly halved the global market value of cryptocurrencies since November, but the drawdown turned to panic in recent sessions with a squeeze on stablecoins.
Stablecoins are tokens pegged to the value of traditional assets, often the US dollar, and are the main medium for moving money between cryptocurrencies or for converting balances to fiat cash.
Cryptocurrency markets were rocked this week by the collapse of TerraUSD (UST), which broke its 1:1 peg to the dollar.
The coin’s complex stability mechanism, which involved balancing with a free-floating cryptocurrency called Luna, stopped working when Luna plunged close to zero.
“For these types of stablecoins, the market needs to trust that the issuer holds sufficient liquid assets they would be able to sell in times of market stress,” analysts at Morgan Stanley said in a research note.
The operating company of another stablecoin called Tether said it has the necessary assets in Treasuries, cash, corporate bonds and other money-market products.
But stablecoins are likely to face further tests if traders keep selling, and analysts are concerned that stress could spill over into money markets if there is more and more liquidation.
Fitch said cryptocurrencies and digital finance could face “significant negative repercussions” if investors lose confidence in stablecoins, as many regulated financial entities have increased their exposure to the sector in recent months. — Reuters
Global markets and US stocks were down sharply most of this week as investors grew anxious about the possibility of recession. The S&P 500 index is off nearly 20 per cent from its all-time high in January and was close to a bear market on Thursday. — Reuters pic
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NEW YORK, May 14 — Global shares rose on Friday as Wall Street rallied to end a volatile week of trading, while oil jumped 4 per cent on the back of record-high US gas prices.
Global markets and US stocks were down sharply most of this week as investors grew anxious about the possibility of recession. The S&P 500 index is off nearly 20 per cent from its all-time high in January and was close to a bear market on Thursday.
But investors’ fears over whether US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell can accomplish a “soft landing” — bringing inflation down while keeping the US economy growing — appeared to ease at least temporarily on Friday.
MSCI’s gauge of stocks across the globe gained 2.30 per cent at 4:07 pm ET (2007 GMT), after hitting its lowest since November 2020 on Thursday. The pan-European STOXX 600 index rose 2.14 per cent.
According to preliminary data, the S&P 500 gained 94.57 points, or 2.41 per cent, to end at 4,024.65 points, while the Nasdaq Composite .IXIC gained 436.61 points, or 3.84 per cent, to 11,807.57. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 466.43 points, or 1.47 per cent, to 32,196.73.
Despite Friday’s gains, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq posted their sixth consecutive weekly loss, and the Dow notched its seventh consecutive weekly dip.
Emerging market stocks rose 1.83 per cent. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rallied 2.01 per cent from Thursday’s 22-month closing low. Japan’s Nikkei rose 2.64 per cent.
“Stocks were ready to rebound as some investors remain hopeful the Fed will deliver a soft landing, while others are ready to buy the dip,” said Edward Moya, analyst at OANDA.
Cryptocurrencies steadied on Friday, with bitcoin recovering from a 16-month low after a volatile week dominated by the collapse in value of TerraUSD, a so-called stablecoin.
Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency by market value, rose 3.5 per cent to US$29,884 (RM131,429.83), rebounding from a December 2020 low of US$25,400 hit on Thursday. Bitcoin remains far below week-earlier levels of around US$40,000 and is on track for a record seventh consecutive weekly loss.
Oil prices jumped 4 per cent as US gasoline prices jumped to a record high and China looked ready to ease pandemic restrictions.
Brent futures rose US$4.10, or 3.8 per cent, to settle at US$111.55 a barrel. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude CLc1 rose US$4.36, or 4.1 per cent, to settle at US$110.49.
Markets are likely to experience a short-term rebound before resuming the sell-off which has sent Wall Street’s Nasdaq tech index .NDX down over 25 per cent since the beginning of the year, BofA analysts wrote in a weekly strategy note.
Investors liquidated global equity funds worth US$10.53 billion in the week ended May 11, compared with US$1.65 billion of net selling in the previous week, according to Refinitiv Lipper.
In an interview late on Thursday, Powell said the battle to control inflation would “include some pain,” and he repeated his expectation of half-percentage-point interest rate rises at each of the Fed’s next two policy meetings.
Headline inflation in the euro zone will fall in the second half of the year but so-called core prices, which strip out food and energy, will keep rising, the European Central Bank’s vice-president Luis de Guindos said on Friday.
The dollar was lower on Friday but remained on track for a weekly gain. The dollar index fell 0.2 per cent, with the euro up 0.21 per cent to US$1.0401.
The Japanese yen weakened 0.77 per cent versus the greenback at 129.32 per dollar, while sterling was last trading at US$1.2232, up 0.27 per cent on the day.
The moves higher in equities were mirrored in US Treasuries, with the benchmark US 10-year yield US10YT=RR edging up to 2.9367 per cent from a close of 2.817 per cent on Thursday.
The policy-sensitive 2-year yield was 2.5986 per cent, from a close of 2.522 per cent.
Gold fell more than 1 per cent on Friday and is set for its fourth straight weekly decline, as the dollar’s strength sapped appetite for bullion. Spot gold XAU= dropped 0.8 per cent to US$1,807.79 an ounce. US gold futures GCc1 fell 0.59 per cent to US$1,807.40 an ounce. — Reuters