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Your daily roundup of commodities news and ING views
配资要闻The last time Hungary’s headline inflation was this high, the sci-fi movie Armageddon was in theatres. Quite fitting, given the peak of inflation is still ahead of us
配资要闻The budget posted a surplus in July, despite some extraordinary spending. Though this looks like a clear positive, it might be a sign that inflation in July was much stronger than we anticipated
配资要闻Your daily roundup of commodities news and ING views
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Quite a bit which has changed in the oil market over the past two weeks. Two weeks ago sentiment was fairly negative, given the continued demand concerns. This negative sentiment appears to have only intensified, with Brent last week trading to as low as US$92.78/bbl- its lowest levels since February and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. However, what is noticeably different from the flat price weakness seen in June and early July compared to early August is that previously the timespreads held up relatively well. This time around, the weakness in the flat price has been accompanied by weakness in the timespreads. While the forward curve is still in backwardation, it certainly isn’t as wide as it was a month or so ago. In addition, refinery margins, whilst historically still high, have come off considerably from their highs seen in June.
On the supply side, several factors have helped. Libya appears to be seeing a recovery in supply following months of disruptions. There will be question marks around how reliable Libyan supply will be in the months ahead. In addition, there could also be a breakthrough in Iranian nuclear talks. The EU has submitted its final draft for a deal, which will need to be approved by the US and Iran. If approved, this would open the door for an increase in Iranian oil exports. This is a big “if”. Negotiations have been going on for over a year, with parties failing to come to an agreement so far. In our balance sheet we are still assuming that Iranian supply will only start to edge higher from early next year. Clearly, there is a risk that this supply starts making a return to the market quicker than we are currently anticipating.
Clearly it is not all great news for the supply side at the moment. There is still plenty of uncertainty as highlighted yesterday, with oil flows along the southern section of the Druzhba pipeline coming to a halt. Russia’s Transneft has blamed the stoppage on the fact that sanctions have prevented it from paying transit fees to Ukraine. The Southern leg of the Druzhba pipeline supplies Slovakia, Hungary and the Czech Republic, with flows transiting through Ukraine. This section of the pipeline supplies in the region of 250Mbbls/d of crude oil. Flows along the northern route of the pipeline, which supplies Poland and Germany, remain unaffected. The Czech pipeline operator expects that flows along the southern route will resume in the coming days, which has provided some comfort to the market. Clearly there is uncertainty over this and the market will be eagerly awaiting for confirmation of a restart in flows.
On the demand side, growing recession risk has weighed on the demand outlook. This is reflected in a number of agencies having revised lower their demand growth forecasts several times this year. The higher prices seen for much of this year would have also led to some demand destruction. EIA weekly data shows that implied gasoline demand in the US has been seasonally weak so far this summer, given the higher pump prices. The more recent weakness in prices may limit the demand destruction that some may feel is needed in order to keep the market balanced.
What is clear is that the oil market is still struggling with both supply and demand uncertainty, and as a result the market is struggling to convincingly find direction. This uncertainty, combined with the lower traded volumes over the summer months, means that prices remain fairly volatile.
The last time Hungary’s headline inflation was this high, the sci-fi movie Armageddon was in theatres. Quite fitting, given the peak of inflation is still ahead of us
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The budget posted a surplus in July, despite some extraordinary spending. Though this looks like a clear positive, it might be a sign that inflation in July was much stronger than we anticipated
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Retail sales contracted by 2.1% in June versus the previous month, though they remain 4.2% higher than in June 2021. It is not all that dramatic, but it does darken the outlook for the second half of the year
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Korea’s solid growth in 2Q was mainly led by a recovery in consumption thanks to the reopening boost. However, the growth outlook for the second half will not be as strong
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Production data signals a slowdown in the second half of 2022, but so far, the hard data has outperformed leading indicators. The softness in employment growth, in seasonally-adjusted terms, is consistent with fading activity, but here too, changes have been limited so far. Wage growth is running below inflation and this should continue
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In June, industrial production grew 10.4% year-on-year, a bit slower than expected (12-14% YoY) but still double-digit growth. The earlier drivers of economic growth such as a few sectors of heavy industry are slowing, and production of consumer durables is much worse. The decline in demand for consumer durables probably reflects (1) weaker foreign orders, where the jump in gas prices has hit purchasing power and consumer sentiment hard in our major trading partners, (2) possible lower demand from refugees from Ukraine, but also from domestic consumers. These trends were evident earlier in retail sales data.
A further deceleration in manufacturing is indicated by the strong slump in PMI orders. We are facing a technical recession in the second half of the year and its depth will be determined by a number of factors. The first few months after the outbreak of war in Ukraine were still favourable for domestic industry due to the high level of orders and production backlogs, as well as the high output of heavy industry. In the last three months, however, black clouds have begun to gather over the sector. We note a decline in production month-on-month in seasonally-adjusted terms (see graph).
Also, the PMI index has slipped deep below the neutral 50-point level, with a marked decline in new orders, including export orders. Uncertainty related to gas supplies to Germany via Nord Steam 1 could also have serious negative consequences for German industry and the Polish industry that supplies it. After a solid first half of 2022, the following months may bring a marked slowdown. Although leading indicators (including May’s PMI) point to a deteriorating situation in Polish manufacturing, the deceleration of domestic industry has not been abrupt so far.
Full-year GDP growth will be 4.7% YoY in our view, but quarterly data will show a significant deceleration: from 8.5% YoY in 1Q22 to below 1% YoY in 4Q22.
The UK jobs market remains tight, even if it is no longer tightening. In practice this data is unlikely to change many minds at the Bank of England when it comes to August’s decision: hawks will stay concerned about worker shortages, while the doves will focus on the pick-up in shorter-term unemployment. We still narrowly expect a 50bp hike next month
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The UK jobs market remains pretty tight all things considered, even if it is no longer actively tightening. The unemployment rate stayed at 3.8%, even if we’re beginning to see a pick-up in the number of people unemployed for less than six months.
Time will tell whether that’s the start of a deterioration in the jobs market, not least because for now, the number of planned redundancies by companies has shown no sign of increasing over recent weeks. What we can probably say with more certainty is that the number of unfilled job vacancies appears to have peaked, and indeed more timely data from Adzuna suggests these will gradually begin to fall.
For the time being though, firms are still clearly finding it hard to fill positions – a monthly Bank of England survey showed that around two-thirds of companies are finding it ‘much harder’ than usual to find staff, and more importantly this percentage has only continued to increase in recent months. Encouragingly though, the number of people classed as inactive (ie neither in a job nor actively seeking one) has continued to decrease, though there are still around a quarter of a million extra people out of the jobs market due to long-term sickness compared to pre-pandemic. That, and lower inward immigration levels, suggest worker shortages could remain an issue for at least the next few months.
The labour market is undoubtedly a lagging indicator, though for now despite the increasing pressure on company margins, firms have a strong incentive to retain staff amid rehiring concerns. So despite mounting economic growth concerns, there’s no guarantee we see a sharp rise in unemployment over coming months. Corporates are more likely to deal with margin and demand pressure by reducing staff hours.
The MPC raised rates by just 50bp, less than expected (ING and consensus at 75bp). This means there is a risk of the zloty weakening. EUR/PLN nearing the wartime shock peak (5.0/€) is possible, but much depends on tomorrow’s conference. A repeat of the very soft rhetoric from June will be negative for the currency
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The phrase ‘currency crisis’ is often mentioned among investors when it comes to Hungary. In this environment, the recently-released economic activity data won’t be able to skew the big picture
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South Korea’s CPI inflation rate of 6% year-on-year in June has raised concern among policymakers about how aggressively they should be in tackling inflation while not stifling growth
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