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Headline inflation accelerated past target but core inflation remains relatively subdued
配资要闻
The government’s energy relief package pushed down German headline inflation in June. This is not a turning point – yet – but rather evidence that it is currently governments and not central banks that can bring down inflation
配资要闻
UK retail sales (excluding fuel) are down by roughly 4% since last October, which reflects both the cost of living squeeze and a more general rotation from goods to services spending post-Covid. Expect further weakness ahead, though the solid jobs market should help prevent a more severe downturn in overall spending
配资要闻
Headline inflation accelerated past target but core inflation remains relatively subdued
配资要闻 The government’s energy relief package pushed down German headline inflation in June. This is not a turning point – yet – but rather evidence that it is currently governments and not central banks that can bring down inflation
配资要闻 UK retail sales (excluding fuel) are down by roughly 4% since last October, which reflects both the cost of living squeeze and a more general rotation from goods to services spending post-Covid. Expect further weakness ahead, though the solid jobs market should help prevent a more severe downturn in overall spending
配资要闻
UK inflation remains above 9% and the recent rise in energy costs will probably help the headline rate go slightly into double-digits from October. The chances of a 50bp Bank of England rate hike in August are rising, though we think there’s only so much further it can hike in the current fragile growth environment
配资要闻
The Bank of Japan has decided to keep its current monetary policy stance despite the rest of the world moving in the opposite direction, and despite growing concerns over a weak Japanese yen
配资要闻
The Bank of England has stuck to its guns and hiked rates by another 25 basis points, resisting pressure to go faster. The hawkish spin in the policy statement suggests a 50bp hike is entirely possible in August. But the bigger signal here is that, by pricing a terminal rate close to 3.5% next year, markets are overestimating the tightening still to come
配资要闻
A surge in machinery orders is a positive sign for future business spending, despite mounting uncertainties
配资要闻
Unsurprisingly, the ending of free Covid testing in March means April’s UK GDP figures look worse than they are. The Bank of England will be focusing more on how bad the consumer story could get in coming months, but the recent announcement of extra government support should help insure against a consumer-led recession
配资要闻
The implicit openness to a 50bp hike in September by the European Central Bank today generated only a short-lived bounce in EUR/USD. We think that rising peripheral spreads and a grim growth outlook in the eurozone are keeping the euro at check, and that a return to 1.0500 remains likely
配资要闻
The National Bank of Poland has hiked rates by another 75bp (ING: +100bp; consensus: +75bp) lifting the reference rate to 6%. It was the ninth rate hike of the current cycle which is likely to continue until we hit a target rate of 8.5%
配资要闻
