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Standing at 4.95% month-on-month, the June inflation reading came in better than the consensus forecast (5.38% MoM), though slightly above our projection (4.8% MoM). Annual inflation, on the other hand, moved up to 78.6% from 73.5% a month ago. The rapid uptrend, which has been in place since the fourth quarter of 2021, is attributable to the pass-through effects of a weak currency following significant monetary easing as well as worsening inflation expectations and external factors, which have weighed on import prices. With the latest data, the (ex-post) real policy rate drops further into negative territory. The policy rate stands at 14% currently, implying a need for a correction in the monetary stance.

Regarding the core indicators, both B and C indices continued to rise, reaching 64.4% year-on-year and 57.2% YoY, respectively – their highest levels as we continue to witness a broad-based deterioration in price dynamics. While the underlying trend has been in retreat since February, it is still markedly high, showing the extent of the challenges on the inflation front.

On the PPI side, the trend remains strong with a 6.8% MoM increase, leading to a further rise in annual inflation to 138.3%. This points to the strength of cost-led inflationary pressures which could further weigh on the CPI outlook in the coming months. Given the possibility of higher energy prices, ongoing supply-side challenges, and currency-related uncertainties, the risks lie to the upside.

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